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Dear Clients, Rates & Capacity Pressure Emerging In April we flagged potential upcoming headwinds for imports into Australia, 2 notables being blank sailings and likely rate increases. Both are seemingly right in play to kick start June. Over the last 3 months we have seen rates from North Asia almost double(for SYD / MEL BNE) however rates from SEA have only seen small increase. The carriers have been able to achieve this from North Asia with a continued (and aggressive) blank sailing programme which artificially decreases supply of container space, whilst there is a reported increase in bookings. Reports of increases on forward bookings are a little surprising, as history shows June is normally subdued leading up to the end of the financial year. With several carriers having limited space in 2026 (due to blank sailings), therefore giving them the needed confidence to go hard with General Rate Increases (GRI). Another factor that has been making news in the industry is lower than expected revenue and profit of ocean carriers. Ocean Network Express (ONE) reported a 92% decrease in profit for their 25 FY (which is based on the Japanese financial year). With other major carriers reporting between 7-14% decrease on container revenue in Q1 26 alone. Which could be attributed to the middle east conflict kicking off in FEB. Middle East Conflict Notwithstanding the hardship being felt by the people living in the conflict zone, the overall impact on international logistics is starting to abate somewhat. Outside of the pressure the conflict is causing to fuel prices as a result of the Strait of Hormuz still being closed for shipping, we are starting to see air cargo capacity resume as the Middle Easten carriers schedules start to return to pre-conflict levels and shipping problems still being isolated to the region. That said, we have heard reports that some Chinese ports (Shanghai & Ningbo notably) have advised some disruption to container supply which is being blamed on containers being stuck in closed Middle Easten ports. New Service Announcement - East Coast Australia Maersk in the last week have advised a new limited service from Shanghai to Sydney & Melbourne to come online in late July. Time will tell if this added service puts enough capacity back into the market to have an overall effect on rates as we head in the peak season proper. Winter & Storms With winter kicking off, do expect some disruptions to schedules, deliveries and port diversions. Over the past years, this has become more common compared to say 5-10 years ago. Should you wish to discuss any of these points, please don't hesitate to reach out to your key contact @ Transways Logistics International. |
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