CHINA MARKETSPACE – Are conditions easing on the back of lockdowns in SYD / MEL? Hard to say, but one would think that there would be industries impacted by the lockdowns and imported goods would decrease.
Don’t forget "GOLDEN WEEK" is fast approaching and space ex CHINA at the end of SEPTEMBER will be critical irrespective of lockdowns. The official Golden Week holiday is FRI 1st OCT – THU 7th OCT.How many importing weeks are left in the year? - We estimate there is only 9-11 weeks to get goods on the water and out of China. Why is that important? In our view, if goods don’t sail prior to the 14th NOV then goods will not likely arrive in time for Christmas sales.
And if we take out the 2 week booking notice period, that is currently required by shipping lines, that gives you 8 x weeks to book cargo. SCARY.
EQUIPMENT – No good news on this front, all carriers are managing what equipment they have and are still focused on the higher grossing trade lanes. It’s a daily battle to gain even 20’ equipment from some carriers now.
PRICING – It’s expected that the pre golden week rush will push pricing up in the second half of SEPT as it traditionally does.
This could see rates push well into the USD11,000 – 12,000 range per 40’ ex main ports in CHINA into East Coast Australia. There have been isolated incidents where rates have already hit this due to repeated blank sailings ex the one port, driving the demand up.
NINGBO PORT UPDATE
As shared with you all on a separate newsletter in AUG, NINGBO port was closed due to a covid outbreak. It’s been reported that its now back operational after a 2-week closure. The impact will be felt for some time as carriers push to move the back log of containers.
HAS WORLD DEMAND PEAKED?
The World Trade Organization thinks it may have. Read their comments by clicking the link below.
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